Welcome to the Fantasy Football Scout Guide to Double Gameweek 25 ahead of today’s 18:30 GMT deadline.
Leeds United and Southampton are the two teams with the extra fixture – the Saints travel to Elland Road on Tuesday evening.
The other main talking point as we plot our moves for the current round of fixtures and beyond, is the potential of more Double Gameweeks in the near future. Pep Guardiola hinted that Gameweeks 26 and 27 will be Doubles for his side but at the time of writing, we await confirmation from the Premier League.
Patrick Bamford (£6.9), Raphinha (£5.4m) and Danny Ings (£8.5m) are the leading trio in the captain poll, with the highly-owned Bamford the popular choice.
The best-value forward in FPL, returning over 19.1 points per million spent, Bamford has garnered over 50 per cent of the vote. This in itself poses Fantasy managers an intriguing shield/sword dilemma:
[Bamford]’s currently in just over 53 per cent of teams, the bulk of those will captain him so if you don’t captain Bamford you will probably get pretty much no ranking gain from him, [and] you could possibly get a red arrow if there’s a surge of support in people drafting him in. Whereas Raphinha was in under three per cent of teams [so] if you captain him the gains could be absolutely huge.
– Joe, Captaincy Video
The potential for either Leeds player to do well is there, especially in that Tuesday fixture. As Jan pointed out in his Captain Sensible article, Southampton have given up 11 big chances in the last four matches, the joint-most in the Premier League, while only Liverpool have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) figure.
Encouraging stuff. But two bits of team news could influence our decisions.
Marcelo Bielsa confirmed that Kalvin Phillips (£4.9m) will miss the first match against Wolves and could possibly sit out the Southampton game too. While Ralph Hasenhüttl revealed that Southampton will be without Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.7m) for a few weeks.
Without Kalvin Phillips they are really not the same team, he is the guy that holds the whole thing together both defensively and going forward … he’s missed five games this year and … Bamford’s blanked in three of those five games so it makes me a bit worried about him.
– David, Captaincy Video
Speaking on the Scoutcast, “professor of Leeds” Seb, as he was dubbed by Joe, conceded that Phillips offers more than Pascal Struijk (£3.9m) in an attacking sense. But, nonetheless, his optimal Leeds trio for the Double would be Bamford, Raphinha and Jack Harrison (£5.5m).
The absence of Walker-Peters is good news for Harrison in particular. The Saints have conceded 17 chances down their right flank over their last four matches and with Walker-Peters missing out, it means we could see one of the centre-backs filling in.
Although, Brazilian Raphinha could also benefit:
Harrison and Raphinha have swapped sides a couple of times in the last few matches … Harrison was obviously subbed off last match … but Raphinha actually moved to the left with Hélder Costa coming on the right, so there is a chance you’ll see Raphinha on the left.
And on Harrison himself, his last two goals I believe, certainly his last goal, came straight down the middle. So if he’s up against the weak full-back that might be more for the assist [but] for the actual goals we might see him making those runs through the middle.
So I think realistically, what’s the crux of this conversation, it’s all quite close. Get the three attackers if you can, if you can’t get Bamford and Raphinha.
Raphinha and Harrison touch heatmap last four matches
When it comes to deciding who to captain, it’s worth noting that Raphinha takes corners while Bamford is expected to stay on penalty duties.
No Premier League team has conceded more spot-kicks this season than Wolves (seven). And Southampton are not doing particularly well in that department, either, having given up four penalties in 2020/21.
But Danny Ings should not be discounted, the Saints talisman has recorded six attempts on goal in his last two Premier League fixtures, including three big chances. And Southampton’s high-press could prove effective against Leeds, as Arsenal discovered in Gameweek 24 scoring four goals.
Speaking on FPL Black Box, Pro Pundit Mark revealed that he is contemplating buying Ings with one of his two free transfers, factoring in that Southampton may have three Double Gameweeks in the next four. Although, as Greyhead noted in the 100th edition of The Great and The Good, how many of us will trust Danny Ings’ fragile hamstring to manage two games in quick succession?
And, as Jamie pointed out in his Members-only analysis of Southampton, if Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side are to get the best out of Ings, then they will need to create more chances, with the Saints creation ranking near the bottom in their last six matches.
Nonetheless, Ings is the only Southampton player included in the Scout Picks starting XI alongside a triple up of Bamford, Raphinha and Stuart Dallas (£5.0m) from Marcelo Bielsa’s troops.
Pro Pundit Plans
Along with Jack Harrison, the other players who could exploit the weakness down Southampton’s right side are Timo Werner (£9.2m) and Marcos Alonso (£5.7m).
I get the feeling that [Alonso] could drop a 15-pointer in any game if he continues in the same attacking vein. It looks like Tuchel is going to persist with the 3-4-3 formation and his comments with regards to Alonso seems particularly encouraging.
As high-flying Pro Pundit Andy mentioned, the Spaniard offers massive potential at both ends of the pitch if you can cope with him missing the odd game.
Chelsea were picked out by both Andy and Lateriser due to their appealing fixtures, despite a difficult-looking Gameweek 26.
West Brom, Leeds and Palace are all in the bottom three for expected goals conceded this season, with Everton the seventh-worst team in the league. The fixtures from Gameweek 27 look prime for goals.
Werner, who has started Chelsea’s last four matches under new boss Thomas Tuchel, has accumulated the joint-highest number of big chances (five) over the last four Gameweeks.
Lateriser also noted that for those who are not Wildcarding in Gameweeks 25/26, there is a decent fixture swing in Gameweek 31, and it could be a good time to Wildcard. Something fellow Pro Pundit Az is planning to do, his thinking no doubt supported by some colourful spreadsheets!
Meanwhile, Werner was not one of the forward options being considered by Hall of Fame No 1 Fábio Borges.
The consistent top 10,000 manager is looking to replace the injured Michail Antonio (£6.6m) in his side and, after running the rule over several candidates, it boiled down to getting Danny Ings now or benching Antonio before buying Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) for Double Gameweek 26.
Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures
This is your last chance to enter the open-to-all Fantasy Football Scout Cup with qualifying for the first round taking place in Gameweek 25. Qualifying for the Members Cup – entry for Premium Members only – gets underway in Gameweek 26.
A total of £300 in prizes is available across the two tournaments.
RedLightning rounded-up the latest Community mini-leagues and competitions.
Impressively, the two main FFScout mini-leagues are the top two Leagues in FPL, followed by Andy’s own mini-league. Well done to the top five managers in each of those mini-leagues.
There’s been another small tweak this week by Mat (aka matzi11a) to the fixtures and results displayed on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page.
From now on the scores and tables will update each night, so managers can see how they are getting on as the Gameweek unfolds.
The fixtures for Gameweek 25 can be found below:
Use the drop-down menus to show your league and division. To find out which league and division you are in, follow the instructions on the main Head-to-Head page.
Once the Gameweek starts, if you click on your opponent’s name you will be linked to their team on the FPL website.
May your arrows be green!
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