Using betting odds in fantasy premier league | fpl.wiki


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Using betting odds in fantasy premier league

Here are the betting odds that I use in fantasy premier league

Anytime Goalscorer and Clean Sheet odds

There will always be a core of players in my FPL team who will always play no matter what so I tend to use a mixture of these odds to determine my bench decisions.  That’s mainly around the fringe players in my FPL team.  Often is comparing clean sheet odds of Dallas, Walker Peters against the anytime goalscoring odds of Soucek.  It works well for Soucek as he’s primarily a goalscorer so his assist potential which isn’t recognised by the goalscoring odds isn’t a factor in the decision making as it would be for someone like Jack Harrison of Leeds.  Harrison is a winger primarily relying on assists.

I also use anytime goalscorer odds as a potential factor in my captain decision making and you’ll see in my captain poll articles I will generally outline these to assist people in their captain choice.  I prefer to transfer a player in on a good fixture and a players anytime goalscoring odds is  also a good test for that in a transfer decision.  Unfortunately it doesn’t work that well for players like De Bruyne who are assist based players and will be negatively viewed in anytime goalscorer odds

The same can be said for a transfer in on a defender.  I would take into account clean sheet odds so the player has a good entry point.  The odds can also be used in reverse as an exit point.

This approach has 2 advantages.  It takes out the emotion and gut feel of a decision which can often lead to an incorrect decision.  It is also a quick decision making tool so you don’t spend hours agonising over the bench order and can concentrate on other aspects of your FPL team.

Winners of the Premier League

I find checking out all the Premier League title odds and comparing them to the actual table an interesting way of seeing the bookies perception of a teams sustainable form. For example even though Man Utd are top of the table at present you’ll find that Liverpool and Man City are generally the favourites to win the league above them.  That is 1 small tool in thinking about them over the longer term and not reacting to short term trends.

Team to win odds

This is another useful tool in picking captain picks.  Realistically if a team isn’t in the top 3 best odds to win a game then that would be a negative for me in picking a captain that week from that team.

Generally you’ll find that is Liverpool, Man City and 1 or 2 others.  It can also help identify the “WBA aspect” to the captain picks as your captain pick follows around those teams who are generally on to a hiding each week.

Goals scored by 1 team

Again this can be another tool in picking a captain.  So if a team is reasonable odds to score 3 goals in a game and they have a predominant goalscorer or goalscorers who score a high % of their goals then this can be useful in assessing the likelihood that a player can score a goal.  Kane and Son are good examples of players who dominate their teams scoring

Penalty specials 

I personally prefer my captain to be the penalty taker in the team if possible.  Last season Man Utd  were awarded 14 penalties.  That’s a goal slightly better than 1 every 3 games.  It’s possible to get odds on a penalty being scored and perusing those is a good additional tool in your captain pick choice.

 


#betting #odds #fantasy #premier #league

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